There's a big problem with the new recall scheme

And it might make things worse

On Wednesday this week I attended a briefing in Westminster. Alongside a roomful of journalists, and two podiums bearing the slogan SECURING BRITAIN’S FUTURE, I listened to Amy Rees, ‘acting’ Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Justice, and Shabana Mahmood, the Lord Chancellor announce a new early release policy (although they did not call it that).

First, Rees, armed with charts and Covid-era very serious delivery, explained quite how bad things are. Driven by longer sentencing, a growing remand population due to the court backlog and a rising recall population, the prison system is about to run out of space, again.

Men’s prisons will be entirely full by November. At that point the government would have to start delaying magistrates court hearings, keeping people in police cells for longer. Soon the police cells would be full and at that point arrests would no longer be possible. Mass, uncontrolled releases, and bail even for dangerous prisoners would be inevitable to avoid a total breakdown of the system. 

So what’s the MoJ’s plan? They’ve got the Treasury to approve £4.7bn for prison building, which will add three new big prisons (c.1,700 capacity each), as well as adding more capacity to existing jails, including 500 places at HMP Channings Wood. But this won’t be enough, as Rees and the Lord Chancellor both acknowledged. 

So their plan is to change how ‘recall’ is handled. When someone is released from prison (typically 40% of the way through their sentence) they are then ‘on licence’ and ‘supervised’ by a probation officer for the rest of that sentence. During this period people have conditions on their licence, including a requirement to meet with probation regularly.

If the person on licence commits another offence or breaches these conditions they can be recalled. There are two kinds of recall - fixed term recalls (FTRs) and standard recalls. Fixed term recalls are either for 14 or 28 days. Standard ones are potentially for the rest of the person’s sentence - they need a parole board to approve their release before that. 

Currently, people serving sentences of between one and four years can be given a 28 day FTR or a standard recall. Under the new system announced on Wednesday they will only be given FTRs unless they’ve displayed some particularly risky behaviour. This will also apply to current prisoners who’ve been given a standard recall and would have been issued an FTR under the new scheme. 

So we will see some (staggered, apparently) mass releases, along with a shift in how recall is used. The Ministry of Justice expect this to free up 1,400 additional spaces, which will stop the system collapsing in November. They hope this will buy enough time for additional capacity to be built, and for the effects of David Gauke’s Sentencing Review to be felt. 

There will be exclusions of course. Anyone subject to MAPPA, and anyone who’s committed a Serious Further Offence will not be eligible, and there will be exclusions for people displaying significantly increased risk. Those who’ve committed sex offences, serious domestic violence and some other offences will also be excluded.

I understand why the MOJ are doing this. I understand why they feel they have no choice - it’s hard to imagine the public accepting release at 35% of the way through sentencing, and that would leave no room for Gauke’s review, which is rumoured to be introducing 33% release. 

The problem though, is that FTRs are terrible. 28 days is just long enough to ensure that someone loses their home and job, but far too short for any rehabilitation, education or substance abuse work to be done. In the case of people who will benefit from this new scheme, these FTRs are purely punitive - remember the MOJ has already excluded those who pose a risk to the public. 

We know that being homeless and unemployed makes people more likely to commit further offences. So the wider use of these FTRs will likely lead to more reoffending, a greater risk to the public and ultimately more recalls to prison as people commit further offences. There are also concerns that these mandatory FTRs may be abused by those who seek to smuggle drugs and other contraband into prisons. 

I also fear that probation officers may be more willing to trigger an FTR than a standard recall. ‘It’s only for 28 days’, may make the moral and professional choice easier, again leading to more recalls and more reoffending when these people are again released. 

I fear that this scheme will produce far fewer than 1,400 new spaces, and another measure is going to be needed before the end of the year. It may even result in more crime, and more victims.